Market Probability
Current Target Rate
3.75% - 4.00%
Updated Dec 3, 4:14 PM
Next Meeting
December 9-10, 2025
Previous Meetings
Oct: 3.75% - 4.00% (10-2)
Sep: 4.00% - 4.25% (11-1)
Jul: 4.25% - 4.50% (9-2)
Next Meeting Info
and market outlook
Market Probability
Current Target Rate
3.75% - 4.00%
Updated Dec 3, 4:14 PM
Next Meeting
December 9-10, 2025
Previous Meetings
Oct: 3.75% - 4.00% (10-2)
Sep: 4.00% - 4.25% (11-1)
Jul: 4.25% - 4.50% (9-2)
Jerome H. Powell
Chair
Jerome Powell is balancing risks but now seen as open to a December cut, stressing data dependence and that further easing must be consistent with progress toward 2% inflation.
Philip N. Jefferson
Vice Chair
Philip Jefferson supports gradual easing but says the Fed should proceed slowly with any further cuts to avoid undermining inflation progress.
Michelle W. Bowman
Vice Chair for Supervision
Michelle Bowman is firmly in the dovish camp, having pushed for larger and earlier rate cuts and still expecting additional easing this year.
Christopher J. Waller
Governor
Christopher Waller openly advocates a December rate cut, citing a cooling labor market and inflation drifting closer to target while favoring a meeting-by-meeting approach thereafter.
Lisa D. Cook
Governor
Lisa Cook views December as “live” for a cut and backed the last move, but is noncommittal for now and highlights financial-stability risks from moving too fast.
Michael S. Barr
Governor
Michael Barr is focused on inflation still near 3%, arguing the Fed must be very cautious about additional cuts and is inclined to hold unless disinflation clearly resumes.
Stephen I. Miran
Governor
Stephen Miran argues policy is too restrictive and calls for larger, faster rate cuts to protect the labor market, making him one of the most dovish voices on the Committee.
John C. Williams
President, New York
John Williams, the New York Fed President and key Powell ally, says there is room for a near-term rate cut, signaling support for another reduction if incoming data do not deteriorate.
Austan D. Goolsbee
President, Chicago
Austan Goolsbee backed earlier cuts but is uneasy about front-loading more easing, arguing that limited data and sticky inflation call for a cautious, go-slow approach.
Susan M. Collins
President, Boston
Susan Collins supported the last cut but sees no urgency for another in December, saying policy is in the right place and setting a high bar for further easing.
Jeffrey R. Schmid
President, Kansas City
Jeffrey Schmid dissented in October to keep rates unchanged and remains firmly in the pause camp, skeptical that another cut is warranted yet.
Alberto G. Musalem
President, St. Louis
Alberto Musalem believes recent cuts were appropriate to support jobs but stresses limited room to cut further and the need to keep leaning against above-target inflation.
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